Unity, Supplies, Support, and Allies

I have talked before about how the Resistance could still grow its forces post-TLJ (link). However, in light of Oscar Isaac’s comments about the Resistance being a smaller, underdog guerilla force, I’ve also started thinking about how the Resistance could win without being a huge military force like the Rebellion was. According te Oscar:

“[The Resistance] are guerrilla fighters, adhering closer to something like the Revolutionary War fighters or even the guerrillas in Cuba with Che and Fidel and all these guys living in the mountains, coming down to do some attacks, and going back and trying to hide from the ’empire’ of the United States. It’s that kind of ragged at this point.”

Episode IX could still show the Resistance growing, of course; Oscar could be  talking about an early stage in the movie, since he says “at this point.” However, if the Resistance is a much-outnumbered guerrilla force for most of Episode IX, could they still win?

A depressing possibility under the small-Resistance scenario, of course, is that the Resistance is defeated or reaches a ceasefire with the FO so that both sides retreat to their own regions of space in preparation for farther movies and series. I’ll rule that out for the moment, though, because it would be a rehash of the TLJ ending and is not a real ending to the saga at all. Besides, this entire situation with the FO has its roots a compromise with the Empire remnants and I highly doubt it’s a good idea to let that history repeat again.

Another point is that Oscar referenced victorious guerrilla fighters, the
Continental Army and Castro’s 26th of July Movement, each of which won their wars and
successfully took power. (What they did with the power afterward is
another matter. This is not meant to be an endorsement of either the U.S.’s or Cuba’s political systems so hold off on the anons please.)

If we leave out the unsatisfactory defeat/ceasefire ending and assume the Resistance stays small, there may still be paths to victory. To that end let’s examine Oscar’s historical parallels.

The British Empire lost to the Continentials because of lack of political will (many in Britain did not believe war was a solution at all), lack of command skill and command line coherence, lack of supplies in hostile territory, the failure of expected Loyalist support to materialize, and the Continentals gaining useful allies like France and Spain. The Cuban government under Batista lost because his commanders made crucial mistakes, he couldn’t get necessary arms and parts for his military due to a U.S. embargo, and he lost both United States and domestic support.

These factors can be boiled down to four things: Unity, supplies, support, and allies. If the FO is disunited and its command are at each other’s throats or simply failing to coordinate; if it loses crucial sources of supplies and has its supply lines disrupted; and if the populations of the occupied territories rise up against it while the Resistance gains allies, there is a chance for even a small Resistance to prevail.

The first part, dissension in the FO command, has been cooking for the past two movies and has only grown worse with Ren’s takeover of the FO. Hux and Ren were just barely kept from each other’s throats by Snoke’s oppressive presence, and with Snoke gone we have seen that Hux is willing to outright murder Ren if he can get away with it–though Domhnall was the one who had the sense to see this, not RJ–while Ren has no compunctions about throwing his General around like a rag doll.

What’s more, the Poe Dameron comics show that dissension in the ranks is a far broader problem than just the aforementioned two members of the top brass. Agent Terex, whereever he is now, did not like or respect Hux, Ren, or Phasma. Colonel Barrut, the commander of the fleet attacking Grail City, did not even believe that Snoke was dead–and it’s very interesting that she was lied to, as probably was most of the FO command. If Ren is so insecure in his position that he has to lie to keep the order, what’s going to happen when the truth inevitably gets out, in drips and then in a flood?

Some, including @themandalorianwolf if I recall correctly, have speculated that there will be an actual civil war between the First Order leadership post-TLJ and it seems plausible given the vacuum in power created by Snoke’s death. The fake news seems to be Kylo Ren and perhaps Hux’s desperate effort to delay the onset of that chaos for as long as possible.

Perhaps the Resistance could actively help along the already-brewing dissension in the FO command. I have speculated that the Knights of Ren will be returning to the big screen to slaughter and terrorize any challengers to their Master’s throne, and perhaps Finn and Rey could take out the Knights to hinder this attempt to stabilize Ren’s rule. More mundanely, the Resistance could disrupt the FO’s communications and coordination.

Second, supplies: This should be one of the first things any guerrilla force goes for and this action should be happening at the very least in the background, perhaps in a between-movies comic or television series. In fact, in the Continental War there was a whole guerrilla campaign known as the Forage War that was dedicated to removing sources of British supplies and harassing foraging parties.

In fact, I find it interesting that Oscar invoked the Continental Army at all as an example of guerrilla warfare, because the Continental Army was not by and large a guerrilla force and many of its engagements with the British were conventional battles. The Forage War on the other hand was a prime example of that Army’s use of irregular forces and scouting parties to harass and weaken the British military.

In addition to the importance of supplies in real life warfare, the recent Star Wars movies and books have seen an increasing emphasis on supplies as a plot point. There was a series of Poe Dameron comic issues that focused on Black Squadron attempt to secure a tanker of fuel for the Resistance, and the Solo movie had fuel as a central plot point. Cobalt Squadron, a junior novelization starring Rose Tico, revolves around a series of supply runs to a planet that has risen up against the First Order.

While the above examples consisted of the Resistance/Rebellion or their allies securing and defending their supplies, this was because the Resistance/Rebellion were in a defensive position at those times. The Resistance, in particular, was a covert force for most of its existence up to The Force Awakens that was outright forbidden to combat the First Order directly. Now that they are at “all-out war,” to quote John Boyega, there is no reason supplies cannot be a point of offense as well as defense for the Resistance.

The Resistance striking at the First Order’s supplies fits quite nicely into the narrative of a guerrilla force that is not ready for full-scale conflicts with the enemy yet, and gives it some of the best bang for its early efforts. Certainly, now that the First Order has taken over the galaxy its supply lines will be stretched in a complex web of logistics across hostile or empty territory, making its transports and supply stations tempting targets. One less Walker shipped to the front lines, one less tanker of fuel for their troop transports, one fewer working blaster in the hands of a Stormtrooper, one TIE fighter with a wonky navigational array that cannot be replaced–any and all of these translate into lives saved from the First Order. Not just Resistance lives either, but those of their allies and of populations under FO occupation.

Disrupted supply lines would also have a profound effect on the effectiveness and morale of the Stormtroopers in particular. As the rank and file they are likely to be hardest hit in the event of deprivation, most immediately in terms of food but also weapons, equipment, and medicine. If the First Order cannot fulfill its most basic function of keeping its armed forces fed and in fighting shape, the leadership of Supreme Leader Kylo Ren may lose all credibility in the eyes of the Troopers.

Low morale and lack of trust in the leadership, in turn, may make a Stormtrooper rebellion likelier to happen. I know food and supplies are a more mundane spark for a Trooper uprising than the general fandom narrative of a courageous fight for freedom, but I have never believed for a moment that a majority of the uprising, if it happens, would be made up of morally upstanding individuals like Finn. Even aside from the lifelong conditioning the Stormtroopers received, the majority of people in general are not heroes. Often the struggle for freedom is made up of baser materials like discontent and sheer desperation. Such a turn of events would make any uprising all the more realistic, not to mention morally complex.

If at all possible, of course, the First Order will try to displace any supply shortfalls onto local populations under its occupation. What will the policies of the First Order, not known for humane and sustainable governance even at the best of times, look like in wartime and under exigency? We just may find out. For that let’s turn to the third of the four pillars upholding the First Order’s war efforts, support.

In terms of political support for the First Order or lack thereof, we saw with Finn and Rose how much people suffer under the their rule even in peacetime. As discussed above, it is likely that the FO leadership will respond with even harsher policies to the war and the Resistance’s efforts. Kylo Ren’s violent temper, impetuous sense of entitlement, and total incompetence will probably not help matters at all.

What’s more, the FO will now be extending its forces over a much broader swathe of the galaxy containing more populations than before. It doesn’t take an expert to see what it means when a greater numbers of angrier people are pitted against the same number of soldiers who themselves may be ill-equipped, sick, and hungry. Not only could occupying forces in key systems lose under this scenario, but if the soldiers are angry at the same people as the populace we might even see them teaming up.

Any systems the FO loses, in turn, are likely to mean losses of key supply sources and routes. Even if the FO does not outright lose control of a system, its efforts to stamp out unrest will mean more resources and attention diverted, giving the Resistance more opportunity to cause havoc elsewhere or to grow its own operations. For strategic as well as moral reasons, therefore, the Resistance would be wise to lend its support to key popular uprisings against the First Order. Perhaps we were seeing this kind of teamwork in action with the leaked set pictures featuring Finn, Poe, and unknown characters.

From here we segue into the final element of a possible small Resistance victory, allies. Any systems that repel or overthrow First Order control, of course, could be valuable allies for the Resistance. We saw an example of this happen at the end of the Poe Dameron comics, with Black Squadron helping a city besieged by the First Order and gaining a Resistance ally for their efforts. Zay and Shriv at the end of the Battlefront 2 DLC were also dispatched to the Outer Rim to contact potential allies, and @opisrussianonmain has speculated that one of the allies they bring in might be Lando, an old friend of Shriv’s.

The thing is, gaining allies and the Resistance staying a small guerrilla force at the core are not mutually exclusive developments. Our basic template for military conflicts in Star Wars is Empire vs. Rebellion, two huge fleets going head to head, although there were still plenty of special ops and guerrilla missions going on. What if things look a little different this time around? The Resistance’s allies could be much like France to the Continental Army (again, I do not support absolute monarchy etc. etc.), providing money and matériel while engaging their common enemy in different battlefields for the most part. It wasn’t until late in the Revolutionary War that France actively coordinated military operations with the North American forces, or instance.

We watched Black Squadron winning over allies at a distance in the Poe comics, in fact. When Black Squadron saved Grail City against the First Order, there was no talk of the city’s military setting out with Black Squadron in an impressive armada to join the Resistance. Instead, their leader promised to keep pushing back against the First Order and to give other aid when requested.

In fact, given the Resistance’s capabilities and the disposition of the First Order, it makes a lot more sense for allies to stay put where they are than to puff up the Resistance’s main forces. The Resistance doesn’t have the capacity to provision a large fleet, and the First Order is spread all over the galaxy. At the present stage the Resistance’s allies would do better defending their own homes against their common enemy slashing at its many tentacles rather than try to lop off its head before they’re ready. Any of the possible allies I mentioned in my “all-out war” meta (link) could resist the First Order from home and help that way.

In having allies or enemies-of-their-enemies positioned throughout the galaxy while keeping the core forces small and lean–though hopefully more than the dozen left at the end of TLJ–the Resistance would also avoid its adversary’s weakness of needing long and vulnerable supply lines. Being small enough to carry their own supplies and having friendly locals to buy from would make the Resistance hard to catch or starve out. And if the time does come for a fleet-to-fleet showdown and the groundwork is laid for large-scale operations, the Resistance could muster a fleet from its allies and go head to head with the adversary.

Another possibility I find intriguing is that of “allies” who fight not with the Resistance but against the First Order, much like Spain in the American Revolutionary War. There could be star systems or former Stormtrooper units that do not necessarily trust or work with the Resistance but count the First Order as their sworn enemy. These groups would still be a big help distracting the First Order as long as they do not work at cross-purposes with the Resistance, and convincing them to direct their efforts in a helpful way could be an adventure of itself.

In conclusion, Episode IX could have a small core Resistance force for all or most of its run and it could still plausibly win if it keeps to these four points: Destroy their enemies’ already wobbly command unity, attack their supplies, erode their base of support, and gain allies to fight with. It’s happened in our universe, why not in a galaxy far far away?